crowded (equal-area)

Mollweide cut from appr. 78,5N and 78,5S. http://planet3.org/2013/12/29/crowded/ refers

lanl (los alamos national lab) seeking a professional

who is very good at programming and analysing high-dimensional Bayesian Networks (partly hierarchial or fully hierarchial depending how you look on things) with non-linear and time-dependent relationships to evaluate the more scientific physical models of climate and to seek potential improvements via statistics in some of these, on areas that are hardest to model with strict physical equations [IOW, make some black-box surrogate models less black]. please note the results of your work are not necessarily implemented on running systems, so do not be a dick with your fellow workers who most likely know their specific subject better than you. statistics is usually only a tool to get better results, but in this position there's a possibility to be a part of cutting edge statistics and science. So, good personal communication skills are required in this highly qualified research group aiming to find the minute errors in physical models arising from the complexity of the real world. military experience not required but a minor advantage (even a pacifist, green activist might be accepted depending on credentials). Bring out and hone your skills in Bayesian multivariate nonlinear statistics with our select crew to better the mankind and understanding of the physical world!

the real ad for the position here:

http://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/postdoc-position-in-bayesian-climate-uncertainty-modeling/

Haiyan scale

based on earlier work seen somewhere in the net. since the B-scale has worked well but ends up at the point where a wooden, well-built ship disintegrates, taking no account to the washed-to-shore iron-hulled fishing boats which still may float someday.

the table in graphical format (no tornado ever has been 11):



Update: Sharing the .ods -file used to make the images. (Hurricane Patricia (2015) with measured measured winds of 175 kt = 5,83 hfws = cat 6)  added to the list

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B34nFtPgUZzjUWhpTl9sQXhzT2M/view?usp=sharing

As can be seen nothing happens at -5 (calm), and at >+5 everything happens.

Theoretically possible would be a category 7 in this scale, as described here: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/29/hothouse-2090-category-6-hurricane-a-grey-swansong-for-tampa/
Let's hope it won't get to that.

Haiyan scale

based on earlier work seen somewhere in the net. since the B-scale has worked well but ends up at the point where a wooden, well-built ship disintegrates, taking no account to the washed-to-shore iron-hulled fishing boats which still may float someday.
the table in graphical format (no tornado ever has been 11):


Update: Sharing the .ods -file used to make the images. (Hurricane Patricia (2015) with measured measured winds of 175 kt = 5,83 hfws = cat 6)  added to the list

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B34nFtPgUZzjUWhpTl9sQXhzT2M/view?usp=sharing
As can be seen nothing happens at -5, and at >+5 everything happens.
Theoretically possible would be a category 7 in this scale, as described here: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/29/hothouse-2090-category-6-hurricane-a-grey-swansong-for-tampa/
Let's hope it won't get to that.

Roadtrip #2 (picture heavy)

so another road trip has taken place.

by car: 172,4 km (~107 miles)

on foot: ~5 km (3 miles)

time spent: almost 7 hours. in the middle ages this would have taken at least a week (if I was in my best shape) without a horse, or some 4 days by horse. A sign on the road towards Kurjenrahka

The private road begins

and we decide to take a shortcut

the road WAS on a map

so a short walk might be in order

there were some

and much

too, including some views of rugged rocky forests

and a few

the

season hadn't started yet on

and we didn't hear any wolves nor saw any deer or bear or lynxes so we drove on to see some of the churches nearby:

There was a small airfield where you could drive without any control to the planes:

It was one of the last days of proper flying (with some help) this summer:

some additional photos:

Road Trip

Noticed yesterday that I haven't been to Aura in all my life so I decided to check the place out. So I took the car and drove towards the village taking the slight detour to visit their church which is some 3 miles away from the centre. While walking in Aura center, it came to mind I haven't been to Tarvasjoki either, so in order to conserve gas, I decided to visit the place too. There it came to mind that smaller roads are usually prettier. Eventually got back home. (There - c.35 min and back home - c.2h 30min of driving + short walks and stops to check on the map where I am, I guess this would not be so much fun with GPS). The whole trip took about 6 hours. Too bad I didn't take more images, it's surprising how f.e. forest management machinery is photogenic sometimes... Here's the approximate route:

And some views taken with the phone cam. Note to take the better camera along next time out, there are at least 6 more villages nearby I haven't visited.

the unknown soldier

Rail Bridge over Aura River in Aura

I guess I'm on this forest road but not sure...

ah, now I again know for certain where I am.

on planetary boundaries

(for non-north american readers) there's some discussion going on about a pipeline that is planned to be built from Canada to USA refineries near Mexican Gulf Coast. This would create 35 permanent jobs. And of course many more temporary jobs in the case of an accidental rupture of the pipe. This, I guess, is nothing new to at least for the couple of Russian readers here. But the thing is, the global boundary for the greenhouse gas effect, that leads to arctic amplification and subsequent meltdown of Greenland ice sheet, likely also West Antarctic ice sheet, will be easily surpassed by the greenhouse gasses produced in the production (search EROEI) and the burning of the said dilbit. I'm in a lucky position at +25m above sea level, and anyway I'm likely to die a bit before the shit hits the fan, so I'm not very active in the green energy tech, though I've cut a bit off my energy use. Maybe the North American leaders are of the same opinion. And their grandchildren. But anyway, here's a sample of the discussion by Ph.D Michael Tobis (who is researching Geophysics) at Planet 3.0:

"So here is my yell at the hurricane.

If you are thinking of getting a permit and building this thing, understand that there is no scenario in which it makes ethical sense to do that. Understand that it is your responsibility as a human being to take this into account. Understand that if you fail to do so, our responsibility to stop the operation does not go away.

Sooner or later a carbon restriction policy will be in place. And as we campaign for it, we will retain a special place in our hearts for a world in which there is no dilbit pipeline. The campaign to deauthorize this operation will not stop. As such, each additional investment you make in this infrastructure puts more money at risk. If you can’t account for the ethics of the situation, consider its politics.

Opposition to Keystone will not go away once the pipeline is built. We don’t want tar sands being dug up, we don’t want dilbit being piped, we don’t want tar being refined. We may not be able to give up oil cold turkey, but we do not need your crap. Even if you build your pipe, we will still fight to leave the tar in the ground where it belongs, and shut down the pipe.

This battle will not be over when the pipe is built. Your investment is at risk."