placeholder for the unofficial environmental doomsday thread, scribbling a timeline (I'd have to check many things in there), disclaimer: no, I do not believe it'll happen quite this fast (rather, spread these out to 2100 to get a more acceptable scenario, though many things have happened FTE). also the citations are not quite accurate, but thereabouts.


*rapid sea ice decimation (2015)

*massive methane bursts (100*the largest yet seen) in east siberian continental shelf (august - december 2015)

winter el Nino 2015-6


*subsequent destruction of 50% Amazon basin rainforest

*due methane bursts on sea - accelerated methane production from permafrost

*the drift of methane to forested areas

*excess of ozone and wildfires due methane warmup and degradation (not all of natural gas is methane)

*excess warmth due methane in agricultural areas keeps the rainfall low

*agricultural production worldwide down 30-40%

*(no negative feedback mechanism)

winter 2016-7 la Nada

* late autumn low pressures in Arctic keep the heat going north, freezing starts in december.

* prev year el Nino moisture drops down on normal areas (Colombia / Peru / the southern US drought ends temporarily for 4 months so people are planting crops in january)

* and to the sub-arctic and northern parts of temperate zones (2 meters of snow at Boston, Helsinki)


* Famine in India due the failure of monsoon made by the Nino conditions. Civil unrest in China because of the on going drought and smog.

* Summer crop fails all around Mediterranean and Black Sea except Italy and wetter sides of some mountain chains. This is either due heat (in the east) or the reintroduction of a cold current by the increased melt of Greenland (on the west) that traps any moisture trying to get to the South western Europe.

*Oil executives start to talk about how good the Kiwi wines are.

*Summer crop partly fails in northern Europe too, here the reason is massive low pressure systems bringing cold and moist air from Greenland (some areas are swamped and others too cold for good growth)

*Belorussia and areas near Ural mountains get a good harvest, though. Too bad the mainstay there is cabbage and barley.

winter 2017-8 la Nada continues

* humankind (with it's newly acquired diet) will produce a record amount of natural gas, but this is not noticed by research groups still operating for methane has hit the 5ppm limit that allows the speculation of rapid disappearance of continental ice sheets.

*northward moving Atlantic cod meets hordes of Arctic cod escaping the deoxygenated methane infested waters.

*The seals hang around for a bit longer since these warmblooded animals feast on the dying cods that were too slow.

2018 *come spring, the Arctic coastal ecosystem has transformed into a mix of algae and methanogens (the blowouts of clathrates have muddies the waters with organic carbon) with little to none multicellular life except some whales which do excursions to some of the algal blooms.

*Blue-green algae start to take hold of the Arctic Ocean.

*The temperature of the globe has risen 0,4 degrees celsius from the 2010, but, as most of this rise is still in the arctic, the majority still thinks this has been a bad year, but nothing too exceptional.

*Some people are wondering where to settle the Inuits who have lost their income from fishing trout.

*Agricultural yields go up somewhat, so the 50 million dead in the 2017 great famine is not expected to repeat itself.

*North Korea declares victory over capitalism as only 500000 people died in there.

*the la Nada and the southward movement of storm tracks in southern Ocean has let the Indian Ocean to warm up so much the Agulhas current now rounds the tip of Africa.

winter 2018-9

*Brazil gets hit by a couple of hurricanes for the Agulhas has warmed up the appropriate path for the storm.

*North Indian ocean cyclone season starts in january with couple of small storms hitting Yemen and Bangladesh.

*The tundra fires in Siberia and Canada stop for the lot of wet snow originating from the freezing ocean.

*When the winter in the Arctic finally begins, the wet snow freezes to 2in. thick ice. Reindeer do not like it.


*Well, you get the gist. Many things may happen faster than expected (hi, XemaSab!) and most thing are interconnected.


*the remake of the film Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum begins in earnest with a burst of deep water clathrates after a category 6 hurricane hits South Carolina, despite the protests of law-abiding people.

Oh dear, why does this always have to end up in lame humor. I mean, there could be some sort of central depository for nasty things, for people who are interested on specifics of destruction. I think I'll be moving towards the solutions issues from here. "All that we have to do is adapt to new sea levels and ocean acidity elimination of many seafood species, relocation of agriculture to where the rain goes, movement of some part of 7B people out of harms way, a few wars to decide who gets toi live and who not, much more costly recovery from extreme weather, the total replacement of our present energy and transportation systems, and the abandonment of present tropics inhospitable to health and we'll have this thing licked.", Peter Zuris, a facebook comment.

1 comment:

Oale said...

no divine inspiration present way-back-when i wrote the above. well okay, true oracles are usually more obscure anyway.